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There are solid reasons to expect near-term strength in the  markets.  

In the U.S., rapid technological progress and supportive federal policies are driving major investments in semiconductor fabrication, AI-related data centers, and , with growing momentum toward nuclear power.  

In Canada, federal and provincial governments are promoting “nation-building” projects that emphasize LNG export capacity, port expansions, and new mines for critical minerals required by the digital economy. Both nations recognize that housing supply must rise substantially to meet population needs, signaling a long-term in residential construction.

Employment flat despite growth potential

Yet, 2025 proved disappointing for overall , especially in employment. According to the , total U.S. private sector jobs in December 2025 rose just 0.4% year over year, and construction employment improved only 0.2%. Within , residential jobs slipped by 0.1%,  grew 0.3%, heavy and civil engineering advanced 1.1%, and specialty trades were flat.  

Average monthly U.S. job gains in 2025 were under 50,000, which is well below the 200,000 considered typical. Construction added barely over 1,000 positions per month. did worse; total employment fell 0.5% year over year, with durable goods suffering the most.  

Canada’s total employment rose 1.1% over 2024, outperforming the U.S., but its construction sector contracted 0.1%. British Columbia was the standout at plus 6.6%. In contrast, Canada’s manufacturing jobs increased by 0.4%. In both countries, job growth centered on healthcare and social assistance, increasing by 2.3% in the U.S. and 3.0% in Canada.  

Earnings improved moderately. In , U.S. private sector hourly wages rose 3.8% year over year, with construction matching that figure. Weekly earnings increased 3.8% overall and 3.9% in construction. Canada’s was slightly lower, at 3.4% hourly and 3.2% weekly.  

Housing starts reveal regional contrasts

Housing activity revealed a sharper divide between the two nations. U.S. housing starts in November 2025 dropped to an annualized 1.246 million units, the lowest since the pandemic. Most analysts believe the country needs at least 1.5 million starts per year to meet demand.  

Canada’s housing market also struggled but showed regional contrasts. Toronto’s starts from January to November plunged 36% from 2024, while Vancouver’s declined 5%. Elsewhere, the trend reversed:  Montreal rose 54%, Calgary 17%, and Edmonton 16%. Nationwide, monthly average housing through November 2025 totaled 256,000 units, compared to 246,000 in 2024’s same period. Historically, the average in the early 2000s was around 200,000.  

Overall, both the U.S. and Canadian appear poised for significant expansion once delayed capital spending accelerates. Ample capacity exists to boost output, and when major technology and resource investments advance, the ensuing wave of will mark a strong upturn for both economies.